I have been meaning to write a blog post on the local elections from a Birmingham perspective, to follow-up on the the one I wrote on the local elections with a national slant. As with all good ideas it's been on the back burner until I could find a moment. Well a moment has been found, so here are some of my thoughts in no particular order.
1 Labour didn't do as well as expected - not by a long-shot
Birmingham political blog Chamberlain files were predicting a 5+ seat gain for Labour, taking them over 80 seats in the council. Labour ended up with a net gain of just one seat. They lost a few seats to the Tories, including that of cabinet member Steve Bedser in Kings Norton, and only just managed to hold off UKIP in Shard End, and the Tories in Longbridge. Cabinet Members who are up for election next year, such as Brigid Jones and James McKay, might also be feeling hot under the collar.
While they might not lose control of the council next year, it will be an important barometer to see which way the council will go in the next few years. The seats to be contested in 2015 were those that Labour won in 2011, to become the largest party on the council. How much they can defend those gains from four years ago will give us a fair idea of how long they'll be running the show.
2 Lib Dems implosion continues, but was not total
The Lib Dems narrowly lost Selly Oak and massively lost Moseley Kings Heath, as well as losing Hall Green. However they did hang onto their seats in Yardley which might give them a chance of defending John Hemming's seat at the General Election. That aside, their prospects don't look rosy, and appears to be a continuing long term trend of losing seats.
3 Tories probably happiest of the three
Tories made a few gains and also held onto seats in places such as Harborne and Edgbaston. However, even if they can continue to make gains at Labour's expense, it's unlikely they'll be able to take control of the administration any time soon. The only way they were able to secure a majority to run the council last time, was by going into coalition with the Lib Dems. Something which looks less and likely, the more the Lib Dems lose seats.
4 No UKIP here, or is there?
UKIP came close to winning in Shard End, and weren't that far off in Longbridge, albeit coming third. So while they didn't win a councillor, their support is higher than the lack of a councillor would suggest. Whether this lasts is anyone's guess.
5 Greens showing no signs of breaking through in Brum
Suffice it to say the Greens did not do well at the local elections in Brum. The less said about the target-to-win in Shard End, where the Greens could only muster a bit more than 300 votes, the better.
However there were some encouraging signs in other wards. The Greens came 3rd in Nechells, Harborne (both over 500 votes) Moseley & Kings Heath and Selly Oak (both over 700 votes), with only paper candidates and no campaigning. This shows they may have some sort of support they can build on for future elections, but the target-to-win ward might need a rethink.
So next year looks like a very interesting local election. Oh and yeah there's a General Election then as well.
