I have been meaning to write a blog post on the local elections from a Birmingham perspective, to follow-up on the the one I wrote on the local elections with a national slant. As with all good ideas it's been on the back burner until I could find a moment. Well a moment has been found, so here are some of my thoughts in no particular order.
1 Labour didn't do as well as expected - not by a long-shot
Birmingham political blog Chamberlain files were predicting a 5+ seat gain for Labour, taking them over 80 seats in the council. Labour ended up with a net gain of just one seat. They lost a few seats to the Tories, including that of cabinet member Steve Bedser in Kings Norton, and only just managed to hold off UKIP in Shard End, and the Tories in Longbridge. Cabinet Members who are up for election next year, such as Brigid Jones and James McKay, might also be feeling hot under the collar.
While they might not lose control of the council next year, it will be an important barometer to see which way the council will go in the next few years. The seats to be contested in 2015 were those that Labour won in 2011, to become the largest party on the council. How much they can defend those gains from four years ago will give us a fair idea of how long they'll be running the show.
2 Lib Dems implosion continues, but was not total
The Lib Dems narrowly lost Selly Oak and massively lost Moseley Kings Heath, as well as losing Hall Green. However they did hang onto their seats in Yardley which might give them a chance of defending John Hemming's seat at the General Election. That aside, their prospects don't look rosy, and appears to be a continuing long term trend of losing seats.
3 Tories probably happiest of the three
Tories made a few gains and also held onto seats in places such as Harborne and Edgbaston. However, even if they can continue to make gains at Labour's expense, it's unlikely they'll be able to take control of the administration any time soon. The only way they were able to secure a majority to run the council last time, was by going into coalition with the Lib Dems. Something which looks less and likely, the more the Lib Dems lose seats.
4 No UKIP here, or is there?
UKIP came close to winning in Shard End, and weren't that far off in Longbridge, albeit coming third. So while they didn't win a councillor, their support is higher than the lack of a councillor would suggest. Whether this lasts is anyone's guess.
5 Greens showing no signs of breaking through in Brum
Suffice it to say the Greens did not do well at the local elections in Brum. The less said about the target-to-win in Shard End, where the Greens could only muster a bit more than 300 votes, the better.
However there were some encouraging signs in other wards. The Greens came 3rd in Nechells, Harborne (both over 500 votes) Moseley & Kings Heath and Selly Oak (both over 700 votes), with only paper candidates and no campaigning. This shows they may have some sort of support they can build on for future elections, but the target-to-win ward might need a rethink.
So next year looks like a very interesting local election. Oh and yeah there's a General Election then as well.
Sunday, 8 June 2014
Monday, 26 May 2014
Painful Thoughts on the European Elections
So the people of Europe have spoken and it makes painful viewing for anyone who isn't on the right. Here are some thoughts on a few key points
1. Front Nationale topping the poll in France has been coming
In many ways the FN topping the poll in France isn't that much of a surprise. They did very well in the local elections back in March, and are generally on a roll. The continuing poor economic situation and a troubled incumbent centre-left President have all helped. However, Marine LePen has also managed to de-toxify the FN since she took over, in terms of marketing if not substance, making it easier to attract votes the more troubled Hollande's government got. Let's not forget that a still toxified FN made the Presidential run-off in 2002, so they were already able to get a significant chunk of the vote even back in Jean-Marie days.
2. Syriza shows it's not just the far right who did well
The left wing coalition topped the poll in Greece (facist Golden Dawn came 3rd so let's not get too excited), and showed that it isn't just right-wing eurosceptic parties getting returned to the European Parliament. While there are particular circumstances in Greece, what lessons do Syriza offer for alternative progressive parties across Europe?
3. Lib Dems wipe-out not as far-fetched as I thought
I had my doubts when I saw the Lib Dems leaked memo story saying they expected to lose all their seats in Europe. In the end this wasn't that far-fetched. Lib Dems hung on in a few places in the locals, where they could rely on their records as a good local councillor, doing something people can more easily relate to (fixing potholes to name but name but one). However in Europe, where representatives are less of a local handyman, they have got hammered. As progressives who feel betrayed at the ConDem coalition we may feel a bit of schadenfreude, until we realise that, with the exception of the South West and London, it's pretty much all down to the UKIP advance.
4. Tories have a better night and Labour a worse night than the locals
Tories can probably feel quite smug that they put in a relatively good performance. This is especially true of those on the right of the Tory party, who will be quite happy at the advance of UKIP in order to shift their own party more to the right. Labour had a worse night than for the locals, only actually beating the Tories in terms of seats and votes once the London and Scotland results came in. Now granted, they have always done worse in Europe than any other poll, and voters probably take these elections even less seriously than the locals, but still not the best night for Labour.
5. Greens do less well than expected - but it might not all be bad
The Greens only managed to add one MEP, did not take Scotland, and their share of the vote actually went down slightly overall. This is disappointing but context is important here. Labour are in opposition, which will always make things a wee bit harder for party that's essentially tacking to the left of Labour. That the Greens held onto (most of) their share of the vote, increased their number of MEPs and finished ahead of the Lib Dems in the face of the media-inflated UKIP onslaught isn't to be sniffed at. Yes the Greens could have done better being the real alternative. But when it comes down to it, it's mainly a question of resources. The Green Party doesn't have the resources; the size of membership or the big money doners of the other parties. Greens also topped the poll in Brighton Pavilion, which if replicated at the General Election, would bode well for Caroline Lucas getting re-elected.
6. UKIP's winning the poll is secondary to whether their voters stick or twist
Yes UKIP winning the vote is depressing but hardly unexpected. Although I'd say that, Greens aside, the other parties' offer to progressives is hardly much to right home about. What's more of a worry is that whether that UKIP vote sticks. In previous following General Elections UKIP's vote has plummeted (to 3.1% in 2010 following 17% in the 2009 Euros), but according to a BBC poll last night almost 60% of UKIP say they will stay with the party at the General election, giving them a vote share of around 17%. With this amount of vote you would expect them to have several MPs, and possibly even hold the balance of power. This may not end up happening as we get closer to the General Election A higher turnout will also probably lower their vote share, even if they get that 60% to turn out for them again. However it's still potentially a worry.
We live in interesting times...
1. Front Nationale topping the poll in France has been coming
In many ways the FN topping the poll in France isn't that much of a surprise. They did very well in the local elections back in March, and are generally on a roll. The continuing poor economic situation and a troubled incumbent centre-left President have all helped. However, Marine LePen has also managed to de-toxify the FN since she took over, in terms of marketing if not substance, making it easier to attract votes the more troubled Hollande's government got. Let's not forget that a still toxified FN made the Presidential run-off in 2002, so they were already able to get a significant chunk of the vote even back in Jean-Marie days.
2. Syriza shows it's not just the far right who did well
The left wing coalition topped the poll in Greece (facist Golden Dawn came 3rd so let's not get too excited), and showed that it isn't just right-wing eurosceptic parties getting returned to the European Parliament. While there are particular circumstances in Greece, what lessons do Syriza offer for alternative progressive parties across Europe?
3. Lib Dems wipe-out not as far-fetched as I thought
I had my doubts when I saw the Lib Dems leaked memo story saying they expected to lose all their seats in Europe. In the end this wasn't that far-fetched. Lib Dems hung on in a few places in the locals, where they could rely on their records as a good local councillor, doing something people can more easily relate to (fixing potholes to name but name but one). However in Europe, where representatives are less of a local handyman, they have got hammered. As progressives who feel betrayed at the ConDem coalition we may feel a bit of schadenfreude, until we realise that, with the exception of the South West and London, it's pretty much all down to the UKIP advance.
4. Tories have a better night and Labour a worse night than the locals
Tories can probably feel quite smug that they put in a relatively good performance. This is especially true of those on the right of the Tory party, who will be quite happy at the advance of UKIP in order to shift their own party more to the right. Labour had a worse night than for the locals, only actually beating the Tories in terms of seats and votes once the London and Scotland results came in. Now granted, they have always done worse in Europe than any other poll, and voters probably take these elections even less seriously than the locals, but still not the best night for Labour.
5. Greens do less well than expected - but it might not all be bad
The Greens only managed to add one MEP, did not take Scotland, and their share of the vote actually went down slightly overall. This is disappointing but context is important here. Labour are in opposition, which will always make things a wee bit harder for party that's essentially tacking to the left of Labour. That the Greens held onto (most of) their share of the vote, increased their number of MEPs and finished ahead of the Lib Dems in the face of the media-inflated UKIP onslaught isn't to be sniffed at. Yes the Greens could have done better being the real alternative. But when it comes down to it, it's mainly a question of resources. The Green Party doesn't have the resources; the size of membership or the big money doners of the other parties. Greens also topped the poll in Brighton Pavilion, which if replicated at the General Election, would bode well for Caroline Lucas getting re-elected.
6. UKIP's winning the poll is secondary to whether their voters stick or twist
Yes UKIP winning the vote is depressing but hardly unexpected. Although I'd say that, Greens aside, the other parties' offer to progressives is hardly much to right home about. What's more of a worry is that whether that UKIP vote sticks. In previous following General Elections UKIP's vote has plummeted (to 3.1% in 2010 following 17% in the 2009 Euros), but according to a BBC poll last night almost 60% of UKIP say they will stay with the party at the General election, giving them a vote share of around 17%. With this amount of vote you would expect them to have several MPs, and possibly even hold the balance of power. This may not end up happening as we get closer to the General Election A higher turnout will also probably lower their vote share, even if they get that 60% to turn out for them again. However it's still potentially a worry.
We live in interesting times...
Saturday, 24 May 2014
Thoughts on the Local Elections Nationally
So now the dust has started to settle on the local elections, I thought I'd write a few of my thoughts. Now I often feel conflicted about electoral politics, and its ability to actually change anything, especially without strong social movements and campaigns operating in tandem on the outside. However it's still fun as a spectator sport if nothing else. Other people have probably said the same or similar things elsewhere but I'm not concerned with that.
1. Labour actually did rather well
The official opposition picked up over 300 new seats and took control of 6 new councils. Even where they didn't make gains their share of the vote increased, especially in areas where they'd need to win at a General Election. They topped the vote in the locals with 31%. Based on the local election showing they probably aren't going to win a majority, but would be the largest party next year. But we kind of knew that already.
2. The "UKIP Earthquake" started to get less and less strong as Friday wore on
The strongest UKIP results appeared to be early on but as more and more results came, in the more Labour looked stronger, until we find that that they actually lost vote share compared to the local elections in 2013.
3. Tories actually did quite badly
I think how bad the Tory results were have been underplayed compared to how much Labour's disappointments are getting hyped up. Also a bad day for the Lib Dems but everyone is saying that so don't really need to emphasise that point.
4 Green Party continued it's very slow progress
Greens continued to make gains overall, despite getting very little media coverage compared to UKIP. Some headline news notably being the official opposition on Solihull Council with 10 councillors in total. At this rate they'll be taking power in about 2115.
all of which brings me onto...
5. Election coverage was overhyped and disproportionate - especially at the BBC
In the run-up all outlets gave blanket media coverage to UKIP, in particular the BBC. In the past when small parties complained that they weren't getting any media coverage, the response was "but you don't have any MPs/many councillors" ie you're not news. So why this time did UKIP get so much (relatively easy) coverage as the "alternative" despite not having control of any councils or MPs? I wouldn't say that all of UKIP's votes were due to media coverage as opposed to local campaigns on the ground, but a good chuck of them would have been.
On election night this was even worse. The BBC decided the line was "UKIP earthquake" and "Labour does badly" after the first few results in Sunderland (where UKIP had some good 2nd places), and stuck to it religiously until London results shook them enough to say "London's different/weird". Which also shows the usual London bias as no other region where UKIP have done less well has been looked at in the same way.
It's onto the Euro results next, which will obviously be a different kettle of fish with everyone voting, a proportional system, and UKIP getting their usual Euro-inflated results.
1. Labour actually did rather well
The official opposition picked up over 300 new seats and took control of 6 new councils. Even where they didn't make gains their share of the vote increased, especially in areas where they'd need to win at a General Election. They topped the vote in the locals with 31%. Based on the local election showing they probably aren't going to win a majority, but would be the largest party next year. But we kind of knew that already.
2. The "UKIP Earthquake" started to get less and less strong as Friday wore on
The strongest UKIP results appeared to be early on but as more and more results came, in the more Labour looked stronger, until we find that that they actually lost vote share compared to the local elections in 2013.
3. Tories actually did quite badly
I think how bad the Tory results were have been underplayed compared to how much Labour's disappointments are getting hyped up. Also a bad day for the Lib Dems but everyone is saying that so don't really need to emphasise that point.
4 Green Party continued it's very slow progress
Greens continued to make gains overall, despite getting very little media coverage compared to UKIP. Some headline news notably being the official opposition on Solihull Council with 10 councillors in total. At this rate they'll be taking power in about 2115.
all of which brings me onto...
5. Election coverage was overhyped and disproportionate - especially at the BBC
In the run-up all outlets gave blanket media coverage to UKIP, in particular the BBC. In the past when small parties complained that they weren't getting any media coverage, the response was "but you don't have any MPs/many councillors" ie you're not news. So why this time did UKIP get so much (relatively easy) coverage as the "alternative" despite not having control of any councils or MPs? I wouldn't say that all of UKIP's votes were due to media coverage as opposed to local campaigns on the ground, but a good chuck of them would have been.
On election night this was even worse. The BBC decided the line was "UKIP earthquake" and "Labour does badly" after the first few results in Sunderland (where UKIP had some good 2nd places), and stuck to it religiously until London results shook them enough to say "London's different/weird". Which also shows the usual London bias as no other region where UKIP have done less well has been looked at in the same way.
It's onto the Euro results next, which will obviously be a different kettle of fish with everyone voting, a proportional system, and UKIP getting their usual Euro-inflated results.
Welcome
So I've decided to rejoin the blogger-sphere. My previous blog-come year abroad diary died a slow death 7 years ago. However for some reason I decided I fancied getting my thoughts down on screen another go. So here it is my musings.
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