Painful Thoughts on the European Elections

So the people of Europe have spoken and it makes painful viewing for anyone who isn't on the right. Here are some thoughts on a few key points

1. Front Nationale topping the poll in France has been coming
In many ways the FN topping the poll in France isn't that much of a surprise. They did very well in the local elections back in March, and are generally on a roll. The continuing poor economic situation and a troubled incumbent centre-left President have all helped. However, Marine LePen has also managed to de-toxify the FN since she took over, in terms of marketing if not substance, making it easier to attract votes the more troubled Hollande's government got. Let's not forget that a still toxified FN made the Presidential run-off in 2002, so they were already able to get a significant chunk of the vote even back in Jean-Marie days.

2. Syriza shows it's not just the far right who did well
The left wing coalition topped the poll in Greece (facist Golden Dawn came 3rd so let's not get too excited), and showed that it isn't just right-wing eurosceptic parties getting returned to the European Parliament. While there are particular circumstances in Greece, what lessons do Syriza offer for alternative progressive parties across Europe?

3. Lib Dems wipe-out not as far-fetched as I thought
I had my doubts when I saw the Lib Dems leaked memo story saying they expected to lose all their seats in Europe. In the end this wasn't that far-fetched. Lib Dems hung on in a few places in the locals, where they could rely on their records as a good local councillor, doing something people can more easily relate to (fixing potholes to name but name but one). However in Europe, where representatives are less of a local handyman, they have got hammered. As progressives who feel betrayed at the ConDem coalition we may feel a bit of schadenfreude, until we realise that, with the exception of the South West and London, it's pretty much all down to the UKIP advance.

4. Tories have a better night and Labour a worse night than the locals
Tories can probably feel quite smug that they put in a relatively good performance. This is especially true of those on the right of the Tory party, who will be quite happy at the advance of UKIP in order to shift their own party more to the right. Labour had a worse night than for the locals, only actually beating the Tories in terms of seats and votes once the London and Scotland results came in. Now granted, they have always done worse in Europe than any other poll, and voters probably take these elections even less seriously than the locals, but still not the best night for Labour.

5. Greens do less well than expected - but it might not all be bad
The Greens only managed to add one MEP, did not take Scotland, and their share of the vote actually went down slightly overall. This is disappointing but context is important here. Labour are in opposition, which will always make things a wee bit harder for party that's essentially tacking to the left of Labour. That the Greens held onto (most of) their share of the vote, increased their number of MEPs and finished ahead of the Lib Dems in the face of the media-inflated UKIP onslaught isn't to be sniffed at. Yes the Greens could have done better being the real alternative. But when it comes down to it, it's mainly a question of resources. The Green Party doesn't have the resources; the size of membership or the big money doners of the other parties. Greens also topped the poll in Brighton Pavilion, which if replicated at the General Election, would bode well for Caroline Lucas getting re-elected.

6. UKIP's winning the poll is secondary to whether their voters stick or twist
Yes UKIP winning the vote is depressing but hardly unexpected. Although I'd say that, Greens aside, the other parties' offer to progressives is hardly much to right home about. What's more of a worry is that whether that UKIP vote sticks. In previous following General Elections UKIP's vote has plummeted (to 3.1% in 2010 following 17% in the 2009 Euros), but according to a BBC poll last night almost 60% of UKIP say they will stay with the party at the General election, giving them a vote share of around 17%. With this amount of vote you would expect them to have several MPs, and possibly even hold the balance of power. This may not end up happening as we get closer to the General Election A higher turnout will also probably lower their vote share, even if they get that 60% to turn out for them again. However it's still potentially a worry.

We live in interesting times...